A pause in trade escalation is welcomed as it should allow the global economy to stabilize; however, investors shouldn’t assume trade tensions have gone away.
Inventories tend to have a cycle of their own, growing and contracting several times over the course of an expansion.
The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.
Investment strategies for a late-cycle environment
How will the Brexit negotiations conclude?
Despite the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continued to characterise the Swiss franc as highly valued, we suggest that any overvaluation may be illusory.
2019 PRI Scores
Dr. Kelly's commentary for July 2015
What would a Conservative government mean for sterling?
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well