Executive Summary. Prolonged period of delevraging could mean low interest rates; subdued growth.
Investment strategies for a late-cycle environment
Emerging Market Equity Views : Favorable global cycle and USD outlooks create a positive environment
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
The biggest problem in U.S. productivity growth has been a decline in investment spending.
The investment outlook for 2019: Late-cycle risks and opportunities
With the U.S dollar having strengthened 6.6% in the last six months, investors are beginning to question whether the dollar has fundamentally changed direction after declining in 2017.
The 2Q18 earnings season has begun, with the major banks kicking things off at the end of last week. We expect many of the themes that dominated earnings announcements in the first quarter to continue in the second