We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.
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Given current and projected productivity and labor supply dynamics, productivity is unlikely to provide a significant lift to future growth.
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As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
Negative effects would occur in the context of an economy less energized by fiscal stimulus than was the case last year.
Last week’s employment report showed the U.S. unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, a multi-decade low. With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, in
The arrival of the bond bear market, continued normalizing of monetary policy and need to finance expanding U.S. budget deficits, long-term rates are set to rise.