Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
Mounting losses may result in this being one of the worst Decembers on record, and one of the worst years for equity performance in a decade.
One of the most perplexing things about the recent stock market rally is that it has occurred against a backdrop of equity fund outflows and bond fund inflows. In fact, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), from the end of 3Q18 through the
Market excitement about a resolution to the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute built ahead of (what were rumored to be) the final round of negotiations this week. However, comments from President Trump May 5 helped to dash that optimism.
Where can investors find sustainable sources of return?
Learn about the important topics covered in the Outlook and their potential impact on broader markets. Michael Cembalest touches on topics including: the global banking system, oil markets, the credit risk of US states and credit market liquidity.
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This piece explores key themes from our Guide to the Markets, providing timely economic and investment insight.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.