While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
With last year���s stock market volatility continuing into the first week of 2019, it is clear that investors are to an extent, the volatility seen at the end of 2018 was driven by concerns around the potential for an earnings recession in 2019.
With last year���s stock market volatility continuing into the first week of 2019, it is clear that investors are anxious. This anxiety is not without merit: indeed, economic data over the last two weeks seem to suggest a material slowdown in growth.
U.S. stocks rallied this week and the S&P 500 posted its single best day in roughly eight months, welcome news to investors struggling through recent volatility. Some of this performance may be tied to G20 summit optimism and cheaper starting valuations.