This is a trend that has already begun this year, with major EM central banks already enacting rate cuts, or at least postponing planned rate hikes.
In a late-cycle, rising interest rate environment, duration can be overlooked. But looking at the bond market today, might it be worth giving duration a second chance?
Executive summary of JPM's long-term capital market return assumptions
Global capital requirements and systemic risk within the insurance industry dominated the conversation at this year’s NAIC International Insurance Forum.
Executive Summary. Prolonged period of delevraging could mean low interest rates; subdued growth.
Emerging Market Equity Views : Favorable global cycle and USD outlooks create a positive environment
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
Over the last decade, investors have been incentivized to “hunt for yield” in riskier asset classes by unorthodox monetary policy, which sucked the yield out of traditional “safe havens”.
A condensed version of the full report with a synopsis of our macro and asset class assumptions. US version.