Trade policy is of first-order importance in a more connected world, and markets have been reacting nervously to U.S. trade disputes.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
2011 estimates and the thinking behind the numbers. Executive summary
The yield curve, specifically its potential inversion, has become one of the most trusted signals of impending economic turmoil.
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the Federal Open Market Committee meeting announcement on September 17.
Expected returns and correlations of asset classes.
The U.S. economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018. This figure was significantly stronger than the expansion average, and the highest rate since 2Q 2014.
Each quarter, in the midst of earnings season, we write a market bulletin focused on U.S. corporate profitability.