One of the most perplexing things about the recent stock market rally is that it has occurred against a backdrop of equity fund outflows and bond fund inflows. In fact, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), from the end of 3Q18 through the
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The arrival of the bond bear market, continued normalizing of monetary policy and need to finance expanding U.S. budget deficits, long-term rates are set to rise.
Uncertainty around the trading relationship between the U.S. and China will linger next year and beyond.
After a dramatic escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China early last week, the Chinese yuan depreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar.
This is a trend that has already begun this year, with major EM central banks already enacting rate cuts, or at least postponing planned rate hikes.
When a central bank moves interest rates there are three transmissions mechanisms between how rate movements directly influence the real economy.
Since the financial crisis, for a relatively liquid investment CLOs consistently have had the highest spreads net of capital costs for US life insurers.
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The performance of the US dollar significantly diverged from relative rate spreads.