Eye on the Market: The Verdict
Eye on the Market: The Verdict
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Active Management and QE-Distorted Markets
Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers, and discusses the challenges they face outperforming at a time of markets distorted by quantitative easing.
Short People: the market rebound, and what comes next
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
Food fights at the Fed and in the Leveraged Loan market
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due.
Fed Zeppelin: Is the Fed making a mistake?
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China.
Mountains and molehills: Achievements and distractions on the road to decarbonization
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.
So Long Yellow Brick Road
An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors
The Armageddonists!
Armageddonists and the portfolio cost of fear, 2010-2019
Warren Peace
A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.
Smoot Hardly: the US-China trade war, prescription drug price legislation and the 2020 election
Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates.