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Economists and analysts reacting to the deal have been pretty skeptical. I have aggregated representative responses below. I will give you my thoughts afterwards.
Consensus reactions to the Phase I US-China deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point. A brief note on what happened, and the alternatives.
Last year, buybacks were all the rage; this year, the pace of share repurchases has slowed, but the pace of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) has accelerated.
Improving credit fundamentals, light tax-exempt supply and robust demand have driven the strong performance of municipal bonds in 2019.
Michael discusses his forecast for 2020, which entails a modest recovery in global growth and profits after trade-war weakness in 2019.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, the prospects for near-term economic growth.