EM should continue to provide a substantial economic growth alpha relative to developed markets due to better demographics and a productivity catch-up.
For investors peering into 2020, it is likely that U.S. monetary policy will remain on hold for the time being.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
This paper examines the U.S. commercial mortgage loan (CML) market and U.S. insurers’ investments in CMLs.
In this paper, we assess the potential risks associated with such a strategy by stressing capital requirements using spread-implied ratings.