Market participants remain focused on downside risks, leading pessimism, rather than optimism, to permeate the investment landscape
Investors are concerned about the deterioration of corporate debt quality.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
Assessing the impact and possible evolution of Fed policy
The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.
The yield curve inversion, has become a trusted signal of impending economic turmoil due to the close historical relationship between inversions and recessions.
The growing amount of negative yielding debt overseas is weighing down on U.S yields as Treasuries become the best house in a bad neighborhood.
At its July meeting, the U.S Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut rates for the first time since December 2008.
The current earnings season has been mixed; lower energy prices and a stronger dollar are headwinds, but health care sector M&A is providing an offset.
Trade was the hot topic of 2018, with the U.S. administration engaging in negotiations with many major trading partners.