In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China.
Mountains and molehills: Achievements and distractions on the road to decarbonization, and what comes next
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.