This paper examines the recovery progress seen in European markets since the start of 2015.
Investors are concerned about the deterioration of corporate debt quality.
Vincent Juvyns and Alex Dryden discuss economic growth in the eurozone and the potential impacts of the slowdown in China and other emerging markets.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
Assessing the impact and possible evolution of Fed policy
The yield curve inversion, has become a trusted signal of impending economic turmoil due to the close historical relationship between inversions and recessions.
Trade was the hot topic of 2018, with the U.S. administration engaging in negotiations with many major trading partners.
Over the last decade, investors have been incentivized to “hunt for yield” in riskier asset classes by unorthodox monetary policy, which sucked the yield out of traditional “safe havens”.
A greater percentage of negative yielding bonds has reignited the hunt for yield as investors look for higher yields in riskier asset classes.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has called a halt to the balance sheet reduction program earlier, and at a higher terminal level, than investors first anticipated.