Vincent Juvyns and Alex Dryden discuss economic growth in the eurozone and the potential impacts of the slowdown in China and other emerging markets.
Assessing the impact and possible evolution of Fed policy
Markets have bounced back nicely in 2019 after a volatile December due to concerns of rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth and geopolitical tensions.
The yield curve inversion, has become a trusted signal of impending economic turmoil due to the close historical relationship between inversions and recessions.
The growing amount of negative yielding debt overseas is weighing down on U.S yields as Treasuries become the best house in a bad neighborhood.
At its July meeting, the U.S Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut rates for the first time since December 2008.
The current earnings season has been mixed; lower energy prices and a stronger dollar are headwinds, but health care sector M&A is providing an offset.
Over the last decade, investors have been incentivized to “hunt for yield” in riskier asset classes by unorthodox monetary policy, which sucked the yield out of traditional “safe havens”.
Trade was the hot topic of 2018, with the U.S. administration engaging in negotiations with many major trading partners.
A greater percentage of negative yielding bonds has reignited the hunt for yield as investors look for higher yields in riskier asset classes.