Assessing the impact and possible evolution of Fed policy
Given current and projected productivity and labor supply dynamics, productivity is unlikely to provide a significant lift to future growth.
Inventories tend to have a cycle of their own, growing and contracting several times over the course of an expansion.
The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.
The current earnings season has been mixed; lower energy prices and a stronger dollar are headwinds, but health care sector M&A is providing an offset.
Equities continue to look attractive relative to fixed income, and could very well move higher in the short-term given firmer economic data and a Fed on hold.