We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and health of the consumer.
How will the Brexit negotiations conclude?
This week the House of Commons demonstrated that a clear majority of Members of Parliament (MPs) are not willing to leave the EU without a deal. Our view has always been that we would at some point end with a relatively soft Brexit.