The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China.
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.
EURUSD should be rangebound
Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates.
Michael shares his thoughts on the US China trade war, Mexico tariffs and the US immigration policy.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.