Michael Cembalest's timely commentary offers views on the economy, markets and investment portfolios.
The U.S. economy should slow but not stall in 2019 due to fading fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a lack of workers. Even as unemployment falls further, inflation should be relatively contained.
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, examines the impact of weak Chinese markets on the U.S. economy in early 2016.
At its July meeting, the U.S Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut rates for the first time since December 2008.
Michael went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world, and ended up halfway around the globe from where he began.
Over the past few weeks, futures markets have begun pricing in an increasing chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its July meeting. This has also been reflected in the cash bond market, where yields out to the 6-month maturity
With more and more companies now privately held, investors have shifted their focus to how they can exit these investments and get their money back.
Trade was the hot topic of 2018, with the U.S. administration engaging in negotiations with many major trading partners.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.