After a dramatic escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China early last week, the Chinese yuan depreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar.
From an economic standpoint, we believe that growth in the U.S. will remain above potential in the coming quarters, but it seems unlikely that the robust growth seen in 2Q18 will be sustained.
With little room for the unemployment rate to fall lower, many economists are growing increasingly concerned with the availability of labor supply and, the prospects for near-term economic growth.
When a central bank moves interest rates there are three transmissions mechanisms between how rate movements directly influence the real economy.
The yield curve inversion, has become a trusted signal of impending economic turmoil due to the close historical relationship between inversions and recessions.
Investors were disappointedInvestors were disappointed that trade tensions re-escalated and the Fed viewed their actions as a “mid-cycle adjustment".
We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.