Trade barriers, once constructed, are not easy to remove and their implementation is likely provide a slower backdrop for financial market performance.
Negative effects would occur in the context of an economy less energized by fiscal stimulus than was the case last year.
As the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient and even begins to become a net exporter of oil, it is likely to keep a lid on oil prices in the long-term.
As of last week, the partial government shutdown is officially the longest shutdown on record.
The phrase of the day has moved away from 2017’s “synchronized global growth” to the less cheerful “global slowdown”. Indeed, global GDP growth has moved down from 3.8% in mid-2017 to 2.6% at the end of 2018. The Markit global manufacturing PMI survey
The past few weeks have seen momentum and growth trades come under pressure, with value outperforming growth.
The growing amount of negative yielding debt overseas is weighing down on U.S yields as Treasuries become the best house in a bad neighborhood.
One of the reasons the Fed has justified cutting interest rates is the lack of inflationary pressures in the domestic economy. Indeed, core PCE has averaged just 1.6% over the past decade, below the Fed’s 2% target.
Consumer sentiment, wage growth, industrial production and high yield spreads can help explain stock market valuations measured by the P/E ratio of the S&P 500
US economy, equities