IN BRIEF

  • Our long-term projections are for lower real GDP growth in developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) economies. The gap we project between the pace of growth in developed and emerging markets has narrowed slightly.

  • Slowing labor force expansion, as the population ages, is a key driver of our macroeconomic projections in the developed markets. Weak productivity gains could potentially generate further downward revisions in coming years.

  • Demographics also weigh on the emerging markets, but even more important will be a deleveraging of the sort already experienced by DM nations after the global economic crisis—a challenge that is still ahead for EM countries. We have reduced our assumption for growth in China.

  • We expect most central banks, in DM and many EM countries, to come close to hitting their inflation targets, although these expectations are marked by uncertainty given the extraordinary monetary policy stances in place.

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Our 2017 assumptions call for lower real GDP growth globally, a narrower DM-EM growth gap and generally stable inflation

Macroeconomic assumptions

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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; estimates as of September 30, 2016.

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