IN BRIEF

We are pleased to present our 2015 Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions – our annual assessment of the long-term outlook for all major asset classes and markets, now in their 19th year.

These assumptions are used widely by institutional investors to ensure that investment policies and decisions are based on real-world, consistent views and can be tested under a variety of market scenarios. They are the result of meticulous analysis by a team of senior investors from across our firm and this analysis is supported by input from our portfolio managers and product specialists around the world.
 
Assumptions white paper
 
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This full report is intended to be a comprehensive analysis, offering an accessible and transparent audit trail for clients and their boards and regulators.
 
Correlation matrix
 
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A summary of our long-term (10–15 year) return expectations, expected volatilities and correlations across key asset classes.
 
 
Infographics: a closer look at the assumptions
 
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The infographics and summary pieces on these pages provide an in-depth view of our return expectations – both overall and by asset class.
 
 
Quick reference guide to using the report
 
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This new publication provides a view on how to navigate the white paper and use the numbers.
 
Webcast replay
 
Members of our Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions Committee presented our 2015 assumptions in a webcast moderated by Monica Issar, Global Head of the J.P. Morgan Endowments & Foundations group.
 
 
News
 
The release of our 2015 assumptions has recently been covered by various news outlets and industry publications:
 
Mike O'Brien on CNBC
 
In this interview, Mike O'Brien, Co-head of Solutions at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, reveals our 2015 long-term outlook for capital markets. He also explains Germany's opposition to quantitative easing.
 
 
Mike O'Brien appeared on FTfm TV to talk about Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions
 
 
Mike highlighted how:
  • We are in a low growth environment and pension funds and other institutional investors need to change their assumptions, by reviewing their investment policy framework
  • Lower returns across capital markets will affect return targets. To increase returns investors will need to:
    • Take more risk
    • Diversify into more illiquid asset classes
    • Be more proactive around asset allocation
    • Use active management to achieve above market returns through skill