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February 15, 2019

Is inflation really dead?

The January CPI report, released earlier this week, showed only a modest increase in consumer prices. The year-over-year rate of headline inflation decelerated to 1.6%, with the report’s weakness driven principally by a larger-than-expected decrease in energy prices. This latest reading appears to be part of a broader trend of persistently low inflation. Nevertheless, given an economy on the verge of its 11th year of expansion, investors may want to ask themselves: is inflation really dead?

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Recent posts

February 8, 2019

Have investors participated in the stock market rebound?

The recent rally in the stock market has been impressive, with the S&P 500 now up 15.1% since December 24, 2018. Turnarounds of this magnitude are often accompanied by positive flows into equity products, as investors become more confident in future prospects and increase their stock market exposure.

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February 04, 2019

What’s going on in Venezuela?

The situation in Venezuela is back in the headlines. Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), as an attempt to divert its revenues from the Nicolás Maduro regime in order to accelerate a transfer of power to a more democratic government.

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January 25, 2019

Are there opportunities in EMD?

MEmerging Market Debt (EMD) had a tough 2018. The J.P. Morgan EMBIG Diversified Index, which measures EMD issued in dollars, fell 6.2% last year. EMD denominated in local currencies didn’t fare much better, falling 4.3%. However, after such a sell-off, there may now be opportunities within the asset class.

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January 18, 2019

How is the government shutdown impacting the economy?

As of last week, the partial government shutdown is officially the longest shutdown on record. While we believe the US will avoid a recession in 2019, one of the greatest risks is the economic impact of the shutdown, which grows more damaging the longer it stays in effect.

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January 11, 2019

What should I expect from 4Q18 earnings?

To an extent, the volatility seen at the end of 2018 was driven by concerns around the potential for an earnings recession in 2019. Investors worried that softer global growth, coupled with uncertainty around both trade and monetary policy, would lead profit growth to stall in this year. The recent deterioration in earnings guidance has only added to this dynamic.

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