September 18, 2019
Don’t fear the repo
The interest rate charged for repurchase agreements, or “repos”, spiked briefly on Monday, surging to as high as 8.5% by some measures.
September 13, 2019
Is now the time for value?
While September seems to have brought calmer markets at the headline level, beneath the surface this has not been the case. The past few weeks have seen momentum and growth trades come under pressure, with value outperforming growth by 4.1% since August 27th.
September 6, 2019
What is going on with Brexit now?
Earlier this week, political upheaval once again shook the United Kingdom. In a surprising turn of events, newly-appointed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government lost its majority after a former Conservative minister joined the Liberal Democrats.
August 30, 2019
What is a fair price to pay for stocks?
Equity and fixed income markets have been on a wild ride in recent weeks, as recession fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and continued weakness in manufacturing have weighed on investor sentiment.
August 23, 2019
Will the Fed cut rates again?
When the Fed cut rates in July 2019 for the first time since 2008, it went to great lengths to emphasize that it was an “insurance cut” - necessary to length the expansion but not the start of a prolonged easing cycle. The challenge for the Fed is that the economic data does not seem to be fitting its narrative.
August 16, 2019
Will rate cuts push inflation higher?
One of the reasons the Fed has justified cutting interest rates is the lack of inflationary pressures in the domestic economy. Indeed, core PCE has averaged just 1.6% over the past decade, below the Fed’s 2% target.
August 14, 2019
Does the yield curve inversion signal trouble ahead?
Earlier this week, a closely-watched economic indicator, the difference in yield between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond (2s10s), inverted. This inversion, however brief, was further evidence of investor concern over the current state of affairs
August 14, 2019
Why is income from fixed income harder to come by?
Historically, fixed income investors have been able to generate a healthy income stream from high quality bonds. However, given the current environment of ultra-low yields, income has been harder and harder to come by. With the Fed poised to cut rates again this year, that dynamic is even more relevant.
August 13, 2019
How should I invest in choppy markets?
Last week saw both stock and bond markets swing wildly due to questions around the future path of Fed policy, an unexpected depreciation in the Chinese renminbi, and uncertainty around trade.
August 12, 2019
Investing for the Middle Run
I have always been a middle-distance runner, a fact for which I must credit the Dublin bus service of my school days. Dublin was supposed to be a bus-friendly city and the main roads all had bus stops every quarter of a mile or so, with buses scheduled to arrive every few minutes. However, that is not exactly how it worked.