Negative effects would occur in the context of an economy less energized by fiscal stimulus than was the case last year.
As of last week, the partial government shutdown is officially the longest shutdown on record.
The phrase of the day has moved away from 2017’s “synchronized global growth” to the less cheerful “global slowdown”. Indeed, global GDP growth has moved down from 3.8% in mid-2017 to 2.6% at the end of 2018. The Markit global manufacturing PMI survey
China’s economic revolution continues to be one of the defining stories of the 21st century.
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The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due.
The yield curve inversion, has become a trusted signal of impending economic turmoil due to the close historical relationship between inversions and recessions.
When a central bank moves interest rates there are three transmissions mechanisms between how rate movements directly influence the real economy.