On a forward-looking basis, assuming J.P. Morgan’s 2021 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, a 40% equity, 60% bond portfolio, and an 80% confidence level, the 4% initial withdrawal rate continues to be a successful level of spending that avoids running out of money before 30 years have passed. But how has the 4% rule performed in the past? Based on an analysis of 64 rolling 30-year historical periods, almost 1 in 4 times investors may have had 5 times the amount that they started with at the end of retirement. This may be a positive outcome if an investor’s goal is to leave a legacy. It may be a poor outcome if lifestyle sacrifices were made along the way to keep spending low relative to how the portfolio was performing over time. The 4% rule is a helpful rule of thumb to understand the maximum withdrawal rate that has a very high confidence of not running out of money – it is not an efficient withdrawal plan for households that want to use their retirement wealth to support their retirement lifestyle.