This page is designed to assess the health of the economy by looking at key cyclical sectors. We show residential investment, business fixed investment, light vehicle sales and the business inventory-to-sales ratio. We often refer to this slide as the “Four Horsemen of a Recession”, because the key trend to look out for across these four charts is the same: usually there is one or multiple areas of the economy that become overextended and may form a bubble that precipitates a recession. Currently, none of these sectors look overextended, indicating that if the U.S. does enter into a recession, it will likely be a mild one.