The Weekly Strategy Report (July 16, 2018)
- Oil market dynamics have diverged between West Texas Intermediate, where the front end of the curve has been in extreme backwardation, and Brent crude, where last week’s sell-off flattened the futures curve. This suggests tighter markets in the U.S. relative to the rest of the world, but likely also reflects a number of technical market phenomena.
- The acceleration phase in oil prices appears to be over for now, given Saudi Arabian and Russian commitment to boost supply (as well as negative trade rhetoric), but Brent prices look supported in their new range somewhere around USD 75 per barrel.
Our portfolios overweight the energy-heavy Canadian equity market, part of a broader stock-bond overweight. We have trimmed our exposure to emerging market equities and debt, both of which are highly levered to a U.S. dollar that may benefit if global trade deteriorates.
EXHIBIT 1: West Texas Intermediate 1month-6month spreads
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