On this slide, we show the average tariff rate on U.S. goods imports over time. Economic globalization has led to more relaxed trade policies, with tariffs declining since the 1930s. However, recent geopolitical tensions and COVID-19 disruptions have prompted a reassessment of open trade policies, and tariffs sit at the center of the Trump administration’s policy agenda. The hatched bar represents an estimate of the current average effective tariff rate on goods imports taking into account all recently imposed policies. U.S. trade policy remains highly uncertain, and it is unclear what tariffs will be implemented permanently and which will be used primarily as a negotiation tool. Regardless, tariffs are likely to persist under the current administration.