This page explores recent labor market trends. The left side shows nonfarm payroll gains and the three month moving average. The monthly data are volatile, but it is clear that labor market momentum has weakened meaningfully. The chart on the right shows the unemployment rate and wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers since the mid 1990s. The two measures have historically had an inverse relationship.  The labor market has shown signs of weakness, and the unemployment rate, while still historically low, has risen to 4.4% after reaching a cycle low in 2023. That said, stricter immigration policies could keep the unemployment rate from rising meaningfully, even as job growth slows. As the unemployment rate holds steady, wage growth should also stabilize.