This slide explores the drivers of consumer spending, helping us understand not only why this K-shaped expansion has unfolded, but also what may drive consumer spending in the future. On the top left, we show cumulative net worth growth since 2019 by income cohort, with the top 20% of consumers by income enjoying over 70% of the wealth gains. This helps to explain why upper-income consumers have been so resilient. The top right chart shows the share of total consumer expenditures attributable to each income cohort. With the top 20% responsible for nearly 40% of total spending vs. just 9% for the bottom 20%, headline economic activity has remained resilient despite weakness among lower income cohorts. The bottom left chart shows the average income tax refund by filing year, with our forecast penciled in for 2026. Larger refunds in early 2026 could bolster consumer spending in a way similar to pandemic stimulus checks,