Based on J.P. Morgan’s 2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions and assuming an 80% confidence level and a 40% equity, 60% bond portfolio, the 4% initial withdrawal rate continues to be a successful level of spending that avoids running out of money before 30 years have passed. However, for those with greater longevity the risk of running out of money increases. How has the 4% rule performed in the past? Based on an analysis of 65 rolling 30-year historical periods from 1028-2021, 1 in 4 times investors may have had 5 times the amount that they started with at the end of retirement. This may be a positive outcome if an investor’s goal is to leave a legacy. It may be a poor outcome if lifestyle sacrifices were made along the way to keep spending low relative to how the portfolio was performing over time. The 4% rule is a helpful rule of thumb to understand the maximum withdrawal rate that has a very high confidence of not running out of money – it is not an efficient withdrawal plan for households that want to use their retirement wealth to support their retirement lifestyle.