alt
Welcome
  • Funds

    Products

    • Mutual Funds
    • ETFs
    • SmartRetirement Funds
    • 529 Portfolios
    • Money Market Funds
    • Commingled Funds
    • Featured Funds

    Asset Class Capabilities

    • Fixed Income
    • Equity
    • Multi-Asset Solutions
    • Alternatives
    • Global Liquidity
  • Investment Strategies

    Investment Approach

    • ETF Investing
    • Model Portfolios
    • Separately Managed Accounts
    • Sustainable Investing
    • Variable Insurance Portfolios
    • Commingled Pension Trust Funds

    College Planning

    • 529 College Savings Plan
    • College Planning Essentials

    Defined Contribution

    • Retirement Solutions
    • Target Date Strategies
    • Full-service 401(k) Solution
    • Retirement Income
  • Insights

    Market Insights

    • Market Insights Overview
    • Guide to the Markets
    • Quarterly Economic & Market Update
    • Guide to Alternatives
    • Market Updates
    • On the Minds of Investors
    • Principles for Successful Long-Term Investing
    • Weekly Market Recap

    Portfolio Insights

    • Portfolio Insights Overview
    • Asset Class Views
    • Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
    • Monthly Strategy Report
    • Sustainable Investing

    Retirement Insights

    • Retirement Insights Overview
    • Guide to Retirement
    • Principles for a Successful Retirement
    • Defined Contribution Insights
  • Tools

    Portfolio Construction

    • Portfolio Construction Tools Overview
    • Portfolio Analysis
    • Model Portfolios
    • Investment Comparison
    • Bond Ladder Illustrator

    Defined Contribution

    • Retirement Plan Tools & Resources Overview
    • Target Date Compass®
    • Core Menu Evaluator℠
    • Price Smart℠
  • Resources
    • Account Service Forms
    • Tax Planning
    • News & Fund Announcements
    • Insights App
    • Events
    • Library
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
Skip to main content
  • Account Login
    • Login
    • Register
  • Welcome
    • My Collections
    • Logout
  • Role
  • Country
  • Shareholder Login
Search
Menu
CLOSE
Search
You are about to leave the site Close
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s website and/or mobile terms, privacy and security policies don't apply to the site or app you're about to visit. Please review its terms, privacy and security policies to see how they apply to you. J.P. Morgan Asset Management isn’t responsible for (and doesn't provide) any products, services or content at this third-party site or app, except for products and services that explicitly carry the J.P. Morgan Asset Management name.
CONTINUE Go Back
  1. Home
  2. Insights
  3. Market Insights
  4. Market Updates
  5. On the Minds of Investors
  6. Recency Bias: How do current trends impact investment decisions?

  • Share
  • LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
  • Print
  • Actions
  • LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
    Print

Recency Bias: How do current trends impact investment decisions?

09/18/2020

Samantha Azzarello

If we come at any market or investment question from the angle of analysis, data, debate, and just being thoughtful, we can lessen the tendency to heavily weight our most recent experience.

Samantha Azzarello

Listen to On the Minds of Investors

09/18/2020

Behavioral Finance Series

Behavioral finance incorporates elements of psychology to explain the actual behavior of investors and the subsequent effect on markets, in contrast to traditional finance which posits purely rational investors and efficient markets. In a series of posts, we will go over the most common behavioral biases investors fall prey to and put them in the context of history or current. 

After the dramatic market declines in March, many investors expected markets would continue to fall. While the massive amount of uncertainty surely influenced this sentiment, it also reflected in the natural inclination to weigh recent events more heavily. This inclination is called “recency bias”, and simply put, it means that humans favor current events over historic ones when thinking about what may lie ahead. Recency bias is the reason the rapid market recovery after March lows took many investors by surprise. It also suggests that following this most recent period of strong performance, many investors may well expect the equity market to continue to grind higher and reach new highs. 

This bias is also prevalent elsewhere in investing. In particular, investor behavior, as determined through U.S equity mutual fund and ETF flows, show clear signs of recency bias. For example, many investors expect growth to continue to outperform value, U.S. to outperform international, or rates to stay low forever. 

In the below chart, we display the periods of market performance and subsequent fund flows in the following year. There is a clear pattern: money flows into funds that do well the previous year and money flows out of funds that had worse performance over that same time period.   

Investors must therefore ask themselves: how can they avoid recency bias? The first step in correcting any behavioral bias is awareness. From there, it is important to manage information flow, by looking at more data when analyzing performance, keeping the bigger picture in mind and noting the cyclical nature of relative outperformance. It would also be prudent to deepen the decision making process, approaching investments with analysis, data and thoughtful debate.

Of course, just because recency bias may be influencing investor sentiments does not mean that recent trends cannot or will not continue. It does suggest, however, that investors should focus on the long-run and take these lessons to heart. 

Fund flows into top and bottom performing equity funds 

Billions, decile 1 = top 10% ranked funds, decile 10 = bottom 10% ranked funds  

Fund flows into top and bottom performing equity funds

Source: JP Morgan Asset Management, Morningstar Direct.

Methodology: The Whole US equity MF universe all surviving MF & ETFs that invest within US domiciled companies. Performance to Flows – Follows a simple lag methodology. Rank corresponds to the annual rank at year end.  Flows will look at the following year once that rank was established.

For example, the “2019” bar shows 2018 fund performance ranked by decile and the subsequent net flows into these products in 2019.

0903c02a829f6e16

EXPLORE MORE

On the Minds of Investors

What investment questions are on the minds of investors? Explore the questions investors ask frequently and find answers at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Read more

Guide to the Markets

The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

Read more

Asset Class Views

Get quarterly commentary and in-depth analysis on equities, fixed income and other asset classes, written by our senior investment teams.

Read more
Equities US economy Markets Investing Principles
J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  • Capital Gains Distributions
  • eDelivery
  • Fund Documents
  • Glossary
  • Help
  • How to invest
  • Important Links
  • Mutual Fund Fee Calculator
  • Accessibility
  • Investment stewardship
  • Privacy
  • Proxy Information
  • Senior Officer Fee Summary
  • SIMPLE IRAs
  • Site disclaimer
  • Terms of use
J.P. Morgan

  • J.P. Morgan
  • JPMorgan Chase
  • Chase
Opens LinkedIn site in new window Opens Youtube site in new window Opens Twitter site in new window

This website is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. By receiving this communication you agree with the intended purpose described above. Any examples used in this material are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. None of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, its affiliates or representatives is suggesting that the recipient or any other person take a specific course of action or any action at all. Communications such as this are not impartial and are provided in connection with the advertising and marketing of products and services. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from personal financial, legal, tax and other professionals that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.

 

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

 

INFORMATION REGARDING MUTUAL FUNDS/ETF:

 

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives and risks as well as charges and expenses of a mutual fund or ETF before investing. The summary and full prospectuses contain this and other information about the mutual fund or ETF and should be read carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus for Mutual Funds: Contact JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. at 1-800-480-4111 or download it from this site. Exchange Traded Funds: Call 1-844-4JPM-ETF or download it from this site.

 

J.P. Morgan Funds and J.P. Morgan ETFs are distributed by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., which is an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Affiliates of JPMorgan Chase & Co. receive fees for providing various services to the funds. JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc. is a member of FINRA  FINRA's BrokerCheck

 

INFORMATION REGARDING COMMINGLED FUNDS:

 

For additional information regarding the Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., please contact your J.P. Morgan Asset Management representative.

 

The Commingled Pension Trust Funds of JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. are collective trust funds established and maintained by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. under a declaration of trust. The funds are not required to file a prospectus or registration statement with the SEC, and accordingly, neither is available. The funds are available only to certain qualified retirement plans and governmental plans and is not offered to the general public. Units of the funds are not bank deposits and are not insured or guaranteed by any bank, government entity, the FDIC or any other type of deposit insurance. You should carefully consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses of the fund before investing.

 

INFORMATION FOR ALL SITE USERS:

 

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

 

NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE

 

Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and/or recorded.
Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

 

If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance. 

 

Copyright © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co., All rights reserved