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We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone’s relatively better balance of payments position.
Market sentiment towards the Chinese currency has shifted significantly
The performance of the US dollar significantly diverged from relative rate spreads.
Potential investment implications of IFRS 9 on bond and equity investment strategies like hedge accounting and derivatives.
David Kelly, the Fed, interest rates