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MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

IN BRIEF

  • This year’s edition of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs) makes few significant changes to the forecasts for GDP growth and inflation that underlie each asset class outlook.
  • Our unchanged developed market (DM) growth projections lie below long-term historical averages, largely because of demographic forces. Among the four major DM economies, we think the U.S. will deliver the fastest pace of economic growth.
  • Emerging market (EM) economies will continue to outgrow their DM counterparts, with India and China leading the way. We expect the gradual deceleration in Chinese growth underway during the past five years will persist over our forecast horizon.
  • Fairly stable inflation will prevail at the global level. U.S. inflation will likely spend more time below target than above it; we slightly downgrade our U.S. CPI forecast.

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Our 2019 assumptions anticipate slow real GDP growth globally; global growth assumptions are little changed from last year at the aggregate level, with most developed-market projections stable

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (%)
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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; estimates as of September 30, 2018.
* Emerging markets aggregate derived from nine country sample.
 

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Examine our return projections by major asset class, their building blocks and the thinking behind the numbers.
 
 
 
 
 


2019 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

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