FACTOR VIEWS 3Q 2018
The factors that we favor were generally mixed in a quarter in which equity markets recovered and volatility subsided—despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), escalating trade tensions and a rise in geopolitical risk.
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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 3Q 2018
While global growth remains above trend, it is late cycle. We are modestly pro-risk, but our conviction is a touch lower. We keep a moderate overweight to stocks, but close our duration underweight and remain neutral on credit and cash.
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 3Q 2018
Our base-case scenario remains Above Trend Growth, amid continuing global economic strength. We remain cautious on U.S. rates, expecting market volatility with transition away from QE. Favored sectors: Short duration securitized credit, leveraged credit.
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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 3Q 2018
While U.S. equities are progressing and stocks elsewhere have been weaker, we remain reasonably optimistic. Earnings are rising at a healthy pace and valuations look reasonable. Fears about profits’ sustainability may restrain gains from here.
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