FACTOR VIEWS 2Q 2019
Factor performance was bifurcated amid sharp market reversals. Equity factors were down across the board; macro factors were bolstered by carry across asset classes. We see potential catalysts in place across equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 2Q 2019
Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth.
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 2Q 2019
We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 45%; we expect a soft landing and roughly trend growth for the global economy and don’t see recession in 2019 or early 2020. Favored sectors: emerging market debt and FX, BBB corporates, high yield credit and loans and short-term securitized credit.
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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 2Q 2019
We are more cautious after the first quarter’s gains, but we continue to find opportunities across global markets, including in higher-quality value-oriented and cyclical stocks. Trade and tariffs pose the biggest risks to our outlook.
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