FACTOR VIEWS 3Q 2018
The factors that we favor were generally mixed in a quarter in which equity markets recovered and volatility subsided—despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), escalating trade tensions and a rise in geopolitical risk.
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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 4Q 2018
Global growth is above trend, but changes to U.S. trade policy and the impact of higher U.S. rates have increased risks to our outlook. We overweight stocks, but trim our positioning, upgrade duration to a small overweight and remain neutral on credit.
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 4Q 2018
Our base-case remains Above Trend Growth, as tariff battles unfold against an otherwise strong global economy. We favor U.S. and European high yield and leveraged loans, short-duration securitized credit, emerging market debt.
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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 3Q 2018
While U.S. equities are progressing and stocks elsewhere have been weaker, we remain reasonably optimistic. Earnings are rising at a healthy pace and valuations look reasonable. Fears about profits’ sustainability may restrain gains from here.
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