FACTOR VIEWS 1Q 2019
Factors remained stable despite a tumultuous quarter for risk assets. Though 2018 was broadly disappointing, we see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 1Q 2019
Slowing economic momentum and tightening policy lead us to de-risk our multi-asset portfolios, reducing stock-bond to a small underweight. Neutral on credit and modestly overweight duration, we upgrade cash (specifically USD cash) to overweight.
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 1Q 2019
We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 50% amid political and trade uncertainties, and likely quantitative tightening and two additional rate hikes. Favored sectors: Short duration securitized credit, high yield credit, local emerging market debt.
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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 1Q 2019
After a year of weak returns, we see an above-average level of opportunity across areas of global stock markets. By region our U.S. investors are the most optimistic as 2019 begins. Trade tensions and tariffs pose the main risk to equity markets.
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