FACTOR VIEWS 4Q 2018
The factors that we favor were generally mixed in a quarter in which equity markets recovered and volatility subsided—despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), escalating trade tensions and a rise in geopolitical risk.
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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 1Q 2019
Slowing economic momentum and tightening policy lead us to de-risk our multi-asset portfolios, reducing stock-bond to a small underweight. Neutral on credit and modestly overweight duration, we upgrade cash (specifically USD cash) to overweight.
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 4Q 2018
Our base-case remains Above Trend Growth, as tariff battles unfold against an otherwise strong global economy. We favor U.S. and European high yield and leveraged loans, short-duration securitized credit, emerging market debt.
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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 4Q 2018
While U.S. equities are progressing and stocks elsewhere have been weaker, we remain reasonably optimistic. Earnings are rising at a healthy pace and valuations look reasonable. Fears about profits’ sustainability may restrain gains from here.
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