FACTOR VIEWS 2Q 2019
Factor performance was bifurcated amid sharp market reversals. Equity factors were down across the board; macro factors were bolstered by carry across asset classes. We see potential catalysts in place across equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 3Q 2019
Trade disputes are raising the downside risks to our forecast for slightly subtrend growth. We retain our mild underweight to stocks and prefer to take risk in carry assets like credit. Reflecting valuations, we downgrade duration to neutral.
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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 3Q 2019
Given trade escalations, Sub Trend Growth is our base case (45% probability) with Recession probability at 20% as consumer and corporate confidence erode. Favored sectors: three- to five-year corporates, long government bonds, and short securitized credit.
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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 2Q 2019
We are more cautious after the first quarter’s gains, but we continue to find opportunities across global markets, including in higher-quality value-oriented and cyclical stocks. Trade and tariffs pose the biggest risks to our outlook.
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