Explore our latest thinking on recent market developments
Factor Views 2Q 2018
By Yazann Romahi
Amid a violent shift in volatility regimes, performance was mixed across factors. Looking ahead we see an improved opportunity set across equity, event-driven and macro factors.
Emerging market debt strategy : Still going strong but beware headwinds
By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Emerging market (EM) fundamentals are on a very strong trajectory: the global synchronised recovery and easy monetary conditions are expected to continue, supporting further strengthening in EM economies and companies.
The 2018 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. Refined and expanded over 22 years, our in-depth, proprietary process provides 10- to 15-year risk and return projections for more than 50 strategy and asset classes.
Emerging markets are in the early phase of their recovery cycle. When comparing cycle-adjusted P/E multiples, emerging market equity ranks as the cheapest segment of the global equity market.
Alex Dryden discusses the implications of the Fed raising interest rates over the next two years, the reduction in the balance sheet and how investors can prepare
After a report was published late Wednesday night implicating interim President Temer in a bribery scandal related to Operation Car Wash, opposition politicians called for his impeachment or resignation, resulting in Brazilian markets opening starkly down on Wednesday.
2017 was billed as a year of potential political turmoil for the eurozone. Investors feared that elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany could lead to a victory for an anti-euro party plunging the very future of the eurozone into doubt
We believe that global reflation is predominantly a growth (rather than inflation) acceleration story. Emerging markets are broadly participating, and importantly the EM earnings cycle has finally turned positive. Risks to this view remain— China growth peaking, a possible "last phase" of USD strength, or a capping of positive earnings estimate revisions (given higher implied growth in current projections). Still, we are optimistic that the turn in momentum can drive additional performance for the asset class, particularly given that valuations are not yet at levels that challenge this improved momentum backdrop.
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
New challenges for Emerging Markets: Risk or opportunity?
By George Iwanicki
The unexpected election of Donald Trump as U.S. President sparked dramatic change across the global investing landscape - and Emerging Markets were hardly immune.
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
What it is productivity, how do you analyze it and what drives it? With slower global GDP growth pushing down expected equity and fixed income market returns, our experts discuss trends and measures that could help boost global economies.
Investors around the world are worried about elevated global debt levels. While there may be more pressing day-to-day market matters, debt remains a persistent underlying concern.
On Brexit, the week before the vote. Michael Cembalest discusses his view that many articles overstate Brexit risks and consequences for the UK, and/or overstate the vote’s impact on political movements and economic malaise in the Eurozone that predate it by months and years. Here are some of his thoughts on issues that have been raised over the last few weeks.
