【聽聽看】債券投資機會到　魚與熊掌如何兼顧

【聽聽看】債券投資機會到　魚與熊掌如何兼顧？

2022年9月

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投資一定有風險，基金投資有賺有賠，申購前應詳閱公開說明書或投資人須知。

各類債券殖利率的明顯上升，雖會增加投資收益的誘因，但投資人也要承受價格波動的風險；尋求長期的殖利率收益去抵銷短線的價格波動壓力，是現階段投資固定收益資產的最佳策略。

林雅慧

摩根資產管理　環球市場策略師

根據最新統計，各主要債券的價格從今年以來皆遭遇到明顯修正。

各類固定收益資產價格變動

資料來源：Barclays, Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit Corporate High Yield Index (U.S. HY), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit Corporate Investment Grade Index (U.S. I G), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index EM Global (GBI EM) (Local EMD), J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) (USD Asian Bond), Bloomberg Barclays Pan European High Yield (Europe HY), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index Global Traded (DM Government Bond), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit High Yield Index (Asia HY), Bloomberg Barclays Global U.S. Treasury Bills (3 5 years) (U.S. Treasury) and Bloomberg Barclays U. S. Treasury Bills (1 3 months) (Cash).10 year data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.). Returns are in U.S. dollars and reflect the period from 31/08/12~31/08/22. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets Asia . Data reflect most recently available as of 2022/9/14.

受價格修正影響，各類主要固定收益資產的最新殖利率，已經遠高於歷史平均。

各類固定收益資產殖利率

資料來源：Bloomberg L.P., ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan Economics Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index (U.S. high yield), Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index (U.S. investment grade), ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index (Euro high yield), Bloomberg Pan European Aggregate Corporate Index (Euro investment grade), Bloomberg EM USD Asia Sovereign Ind ex (USD Asia credit), ICE BofA China Offshore Corporate Index (USD China offshore credit), ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate Index (USD Asia high yield), Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Index (USD EMD), Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Corporate Index (USD EMD corporate), Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Investment Grade Index (USD EMD investment grade). Positive yield does not imply positive return. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets Asia . Data reflect most recently available as of 2022/9/14.

強勢美元造成了美元之外其他貨幣的匯率波動，仍會給債券投資帶來一定風險，因此現階段較推薦美元計價的債券資產。

今年來各主要貨幣兌美元表現(%)

資料來源：FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*The U.S. Dollar Index is used to calculate year to date returns. For other currencies, returns are calculated based on currency pairing versus the U.S. Dollar. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 14/09/22.

【聽聽看】在經濟發生衰退前就開始投資？成果比你想得更好！

經濟衰退雖然不必然會發生，但市場現在都在討論經濟衰退，投資人的信心也異常脆弱。根據歷史經驗，如果真的出現經濟衰退，那麼，在衰退前投資反而也有好處！