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  1. Active bond investing in an inflationary world

Active bond investing in an inflationary world

Oct 2022 (3-minute read)

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Key takeaways:

  • These are tough times for income investors where market volatility still persists, the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain and central banks have been forced to move more aggressively to tame soaring prices1,2.

  • We share how we navigate interest rate risk and where we see opportunities1.

Every quarter, our Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities (GFICC) senior investors gather to formulate a consensus view on the near-term fixed income market. The result of thisis a strategy roadmap for the coming 3-6 months.
 

A view of the hawkish journey ahead

The global economic outlook will continue to be shaped by developments on inflation and labour market fronts as well as the scale, speed and duration of central bank tightening2.

Inflation

Without a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy and food prices are unlikely to fall without government subsidies.

Labour market

Tight labour markets in the US and the UK imply that wage gains are likely to be persistent, reinforcing higher prices in housing, goods and services.

Central bank tightening

The Federal Reserve continues to aggressively increase the federal funds rate in order to tame persistently high inflation. We believe the interest rate could rise from its current level to at least 4.75% in the near term.

Still, this is not to say that everything is bleak. US and European corporate balance sheets have continued to remain strong. The US consumer and state and local governments have built up excess savings in deposit balances and rainy-day funds respectively, while fiscal aid has been deployed to help offset higher energy costs. 
 

Where we see opportunities1

Under current market conditions, we believe that some fixed income sectors can still present opportunities.
 

Annualised returns and volatility

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Dow Jones, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Bond and cash indices are Bloomberg US Treasury – Bills (1-3 months) (Cash), Bloomberg US Aggregate Index (US bonds), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (Asian bonds), J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMD), Bloomberg US Aggregate Credit – Corporate High Yield Index (US HY). Equity indices are the S&P 500 Index (US), MSCI World Index (DM), MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index (APxJ), MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index (AxJ), MSCI Europe Index (Europe), MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EM). High-dividend equity indices are MSCI World High Dividend Yield Index (DM HD), MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan High Dividend Yield Index (AxJ HD), MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan High Dividend Yield Index (APxJ HD), MSCI Emerging Markets High Dividend Yield Index (EM HD). *Monthly total returns between 30.09.2007 and 30.09.2022 are used for all asset classes. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Data reflect most recently available as of 30.09.2022.

Managing interest rate risk Hunting for yield across sectors
Managing interest rate risk
  • Duration positioning3

    We continue to optimise market rallies to reduce both our interest rate exposure and our credit risk4. As part of the overall portfolio allocation1, we continue to prefer high-quality, short-duration bonds and have high conviction for short-dated German bonds.
Hunting for yield across sectors
  • Corporate credit

    We believe that yields on investment-grade corporate bonds with one- to two-year maturities and higher quality securitised credit5 have increased meaningfully year-to-date and may help manage the impact of future interest rate rises.
  • Emerging market debt

    Emerging market (EM) central banks have increased interest rates significantly well ahead of their developed market (DM) peers, resulting in meaningfully higher real yields for local EM debt. This is in contrast to DM debt where real yields have remained negative. However, currency stability against the US dollar will be crucial to drive significant EM allocations.
  • Securitised assets5

    We continue to have a favourable view on dynamics surrounding multi-family commercial mortgage-backed securities, where long-term demographic trends continue to support fundamentals for those properties and shorter lease terms allow properties to increase rents and cash flows in accordance with higher inflation.

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JPMorgan Funds – Global Bond Opportunities Fund

Provided for information only based on market conditions as of date of publication, not to be construed as investment recommendation or advice. Forecasts, projections and other forward looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations, may or may not come to pass. They are for illustrative purposesonly and serve as an indication of what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with forecast, projections or other forward statements, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated.

Diversification does not guarantee investment return and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Yield is not guaranteed. Positive yield does not imply positive return.

1. For illustrative purposes only based on current market conditions, subject to change from time to time. Not all investments are suitable for all investors. Exact allocation of portfolio depends on each individual’s circumstance and market conditions. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.
2. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, “Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2022”, 19.09.2022.
3. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of the principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates and is expressed as number of years.
4. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.
5. Securitisation is the process in which certain type of assets, such as mortgages or other types of loans, are pooled so that they can be repackaged into interest-bearing securities. Examples of securitised debt include asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities.

This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. It does not constitute investment advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment product or service. Informational sources are considered reliable but you should conduct your own verification of information contained herein. Investments involve risks. Investments are not similar or comparable to deposits. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and investors may not get back the full or any part of the amount invested. Dividend distributions if any are not guaranteed and are made at the manager’s discretion. Fund’s net asset value may likely have high volatility due to its investment policies or portfolio management techniques. The value of the units in the scheme and the income accruing to the units, if any, may fall or rise. Funds which are invested in emerging markets, smaller companies and financial derivative instruments may also involve higher risks and are usually more sensitive to price movements. Any applicable currency hedging process may not give a precise hedge and there is no guarantee that any hedging will be successful. Investors in a currency hedged fund or share class may have exposure to currencies other than the currency of their fund or share class. Investors should make their own investigation or evaluation or seek independent advice prior to making any investment. Please refer to the Singapore Offering Documents (including the risk factors set out therein) and the relevant Product Highlights Sheet for details at https://am.jpmorgan.com/sg/en/asset-management/per/. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with https://am.jpmorgan.com/sg/en/asset-management/per/privacy-statement/. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No. 197601586K). All rights reserved.

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