On the left, the blue line shows China's credit impulse as a percentage of nominal GDP, and the grey line shows the 3-month moving average of the year-over-year change in the Bloomberg industrial metals index. This chart shows that industrial metals' prices have moved closely with China's credit impulse. Hence, we observe that Chinese credit growth, such as last year, coincided with strong metal price performance. In contrast, credit tightening, which is expected for China this year, tends to lower industrial metals' prices. The chart on the right shows the price of gold (blue line) and the yield on inflation-protected treasuries (grey line) have an inverse relationship. As the real yield falls, gold prices rise. This reflects that gold performs well during period of weak growth (recession) or high inflation.