Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update
Summary: Despite improving US leading indicators and economic/stock market resilience, GOP House members are abandoning ship at a record pace. The midterm challenges for the GOP include declining blue-collar employment, soaring ACA premiums, a surge in commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and some unorthodox choices at the Department of Justice.
US economic growth and profits have been resilient to the energy shock so far, in part due to 50%-80% declines in US oil intensity since 1990. But if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened sometime in June/July, global oil inventories will hit an operational floor and result in greater rationing, mostly outside the US.
Also: how AI is still the primary driver of US equity markets, the correction in tech valuations, and updates on hyperscaler capital spending, debt issuance, data center buildout and Harvey (the AI program, not the rabbit).
To conclude: a Gulf State pipe dream to reduce the threat from Iran, an update on House redistricting and the Supreme Court VRA decision, and how GPT 5.5 compares to Mythos on cyberhacking capabilities.
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About Eye on the Market
Since 2005, Michael has been the author of Eye On The Market, covering a wide range of topics across the Markets, investments, economics, politics, energy, municipal finance and more.