Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
Today the Bank of England���s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee met, and decided unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at 0.75%.
Mountains and molehills: Achievements and distractions on the road to decarbonization, and what comes next
Michael discusses this year���s Eye on the Market Energy paper.�� Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world���s de-carbonization challenges, Germany���s energy transition and Trump���s War on Science.
The investment landscape is changing as savers and governments place greater scrutiny on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. In this piece we highlight the driving forces and discuss the ways in which investors can include ESG factors
The theory of negative interest rates is straightforward, but the practice is not. What do negative rates mean for savers?
Michael discusses US-China trade war in context, the outlook for prescription drug price legislation, and an updated ideological scorecard for 2020 Presidential candidates.
The first rate rise in a decade was widely expected by markets.
Markets are increasingly nervous about the impact of the trade war on US corporate earnings and business investment.
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.