The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
I went on a search for Democratic Socialism in the real world. I ended up halfway around the globe from where I began. A story in pictures.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China.
Mountains and molehills: Achievements and distractions on the road to decarbonization, and what comes next
Michael discusses this year’s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world’s de-carbonization challenges, Germany’s energy transition and Trump’s War on Science.