Markets, economy, stocks, growth, global, fixed income, international, asset classes
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.
Trade policy is of first-order importance in a more connected world, and markets have been reacting nervously to U.S. trade disputes.
Reaching for yield, which we define as buying bonds with wider spreads after controlling for sector and rating impacts, is a topic that frequently arises in the life insurance industry.
What investors should consider
The key political, macro and credit risks that insurers may want to address in 2019.