The COVID-19 outbreak has pushed the global economy into recession and equities likely have further to fall. We are overweight cash and duration and modestly underweight equity and credit. We expect to stay nimble in our relative value positions.
Just as headwinds from trade policy were beginning to dissipate, the outbreak of COVID-19 has pushed the global economy into recession.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.