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The Weekly Brief

The oil price in euro terms increased sharply through the middle of this year.
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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

The Brexit “Leave” campaign assured the electorate that the benefits the UK enjoys as a manufacturing export base to the European single market, with London unchallenged in services, would persist without conceding anything in return. Now it is clear that access to the single market comes at a cost.
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Weekly Bond Bulletin: Hope on the European horizon?

By GFICC Investors
Disappointing macroeconomic data and ongoing political uncertainty have weighed heavily on the euro. Does this pessimistic picture mean there’s room for a rally?
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Brexit: Getting there

By Karen Ward
There has been significant progress in the Brexit negotiations in the last 48 hours.
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The investment implications of the US midterms

By Dr. David Kelly
The results of the US midterm elections were largely in line with expectations, with one important wrinkle.
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Review of markets over October 2018

By Jai Malhi
Market volatility returned in October. The S&P 500 moved up or down by more than 1% in a single day on ten occasions last month – two more times than in the whole of 2017.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold, waiting for a deal

By Michael Bell
At the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) press conference, Governor Carney noted that businesses are taking a very cautious approach right now because of the uncertainty around the outcome of the ongoing Brexit negotiations.
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Budget delivers tax cuts

By Michael Bell
The Chancellor pointed out at the beginning of this budget that a new budget could be required in the spring if a Brexit deal is not reached.
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3Q18 US Earnings: The risks begin to crystallize

By David Lebovitz
After a relatively quiet summer, volatility spiked in October as investors worried about rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth and geopolitical tensions.
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Global Equity Views 4Q 2018

By Paul Quinsee
We are a little more cautious amid rising U.S. rates and economic and profits cycles that are
long by historical standards. We find opportunity in our-of-favor areas including emerging
markets and Europe, and many financial stocks look attractive.
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Wind against the tide

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Rising core rates, escalating trade pressures and idiosyncratic stories in countries such as Argentina and Turkey continued to create volatility in emerging markets. We expect the first two themes to continue into the upcoming quarter, while noise from idiosyncratic stories marginally fades.
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Factor Views 4Q 2018

By Yazann Romahi, Garrett Norman
Amid global divergences and episodic trade tensions, a number of factors suffered, with equity value mired in its second-worst drawdown since 1990. We see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.
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Brexit Briefing: Pensions perspective

Sorca Kelly-Scholte, Head of EMEA Pensions Solutions and Advisory Team, provides a video update on the main implications of BREXIT for pension firms
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Brexit Briefing: Corporate perspective

Dan Watkins, Deputy CEO, Asset Management EMEA, provides a video update on the questions investors should be asking their aseet managers around BREXIT.
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Brexit Briefing: Economic and market perspective

Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist, provides a video update on Brexit negotiations and their possible implications.
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How will the Brexit negotiations conclude?

We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively "soft" Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
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Review of markets over the third quarter 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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The Italian budget – pushing the boundaries

By Maria Paola Toschi
Markets have been nervously awaiting the new Italian government’s budget proposal.
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The Fed: Raising rates and uncertainty

By Dr. David Kelly
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 2.00%-2.25%. The language in its statement and its economic projections was slightly more hawkish than in its June meeting.
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Global Fixed Income Views 4Q 2018

By Bob Michele
Our base-case remains Above Trend Growth, as tariff battles unfold against an otherwise strong global economy. We favor U.S. and European high yield and leveraged loans, short-duration securitized credit, emerging market debt.
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Global Asset Allocation Views 4Q 2018

By John Bilton
Global growth is above trend, but changes to U.S. trade policy and the impact of higher U.S. rates have increased risks to our outlook. We overweight stocks, but trim our positioning, upgrade duration to a small overweight and remain neutral on credit.
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Turning the dial: Portfolio considerations in the late cycle

By Karen Ward, Michael Bell
Like summers, economic expansions do not last forever. The US recovery is now the second longest on record. There is nothing to suggest it will end in the near future, so the broad prognosis for risk assets remains good. But we know that—like weather forecasters—economists struggle to precisely time a change in the outlook.
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European Central Bank on autopilot

By Michael Bell
Today the European Central Bank (ECB) met and, as was widely expected, decided to keep policy unchanged. The ECB’s key interest rates – the refinancing rate and the deposit rate – are to remain at 0% and -0.4% respectively.
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European high yield: Five questions for the rest of the year

Has a turbulent first half created opportunities in the European high yield (HY) market?
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Review of markets over August 2018

By Vincent Juvyns
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Global Transportation Q&A

By Andy Dacy
Assets in the transportation space may include but is not limited to anything from ships to trains to aircrafts, providing institutional investors with alternative sources of returns. Andy Dacy talks about how the asset class is evolving and where he currently sees the best investment opportunities.
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To what extent should investors worry about Turkey?

By Gabriela Santos, Alex Dryden
Turkish assets have been under severe pressure, with the Turkish lira depreciating against the U.S. dollar.
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Review of markets over July 2018

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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2Q18 US earnings update: Tug of war

By David Lebovitz
2018 has seen the stock market struggle to find direction, as political risks and robust earnings growth have offset one another, complicating the investment landscape.
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Brexit: Ready for the main event

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward provides an update on Brexit following Prime Minister May's cabinet meeting and the subsequent resignation of David Davis, Brexit Secretary.
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Review of markets over the second quarter 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Trade tensions: A fight on many fronts

By David Lebovitz, Hannah Anderson, Gabriela Santos
Trade related headlines have been overwhelming over the past few months. It is important for investors to separate tariffs that have been enacted from tariffs that are still under discussion.
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2018 investment outlook: Mid-year update

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward reviews the first half of 2018 and considers what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
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The Fed: More hawkish, but what did you expect?

By Dr. David Kelly
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 1.75%-2.00% today.
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Review of markets over May 2018

By Tilmann Galler
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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A populist shift in Italy but not a systemic risk

By Maria Paola Toschi
With a Prime Minister appointed, Italy is now forming a government around a coalition of two parties - Movement Five Star (M5S) and League (formerly Northern League).
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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

By George Iwanicki
Risks to an asset class come in two varieties—internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.
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UK Bank of England meeting: Rates on hold amid mixed signals on the economy

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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Review of markets over April 2018

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Review of markets over the first quarter of 2018

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
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Renewable energy and battery storage: Impacts of disruption on the core infrastructure investor

Disruption threatens all investors. Every industry and sector faces disruption risks from new technologies, competitors, politics and regulations.
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Shedding light on trade turmoil

By Dr. David Kelly
Over the past week financial markets have reacted negatively to the President’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, mainly due to fears of a trade war that could reduce global trade.
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European Central Bank meeting: Subdued inflation to keep policy accommodative

By Karen Ward
The European Central Bank (ECB) met today and kept policy unchanged.
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Italian election: Let the coalition battle commence

By Maria Paola Toschi
The Italian election did not result in a majority for either a single party or coalition.
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German politics: SPD members vote for four more years of Chancellor Merkel

By Tilmann Galler
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) voted this weekend with 66% of its members in favor of forming a government with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives.
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Trade Turmoil: U.S. actions on steel and aluminum worry investors

By Hannah Anderson
The U.S. is actively pursuing protectionist trade policies, announcing tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. This latest action should not come as a surprise as it is in line with previous comments from this administration on trade.
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Review of markets over February 2018

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Asian equities: More room to run?

By Ian Hui, Tai Hui
This paper, written by Tai Hui and Ian Hui, discusses the current situation on earnings, valuations and headwinds for Asian equities and how it affects our outlook.
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Bank of England: Less willing to tolerate inflation above target

By Karen Ward
The Bank of England (BoE) held its policy steady in February. The key interest rate was maintained at 0.5% and there were no changes to the asset purchase programme.
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February volatility: More noise than signal?

By Karen Ward
Karen Ward looks at whether recent volatility is more market noise, rather than selling signal.
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Review of markets over January 2018

By Nandini Ramakrishnan
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Italian general election: Some concern is warranted but risks to the eurozone remain low

By Maria Paola Toschi
This paper reviews the possible outcomes of the Italian election that will take place on 4 March 2018.
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Review of markets over fourth quarter 2017

By Michael Bell
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last quarter.
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The investment implications of tax reform

By Dr. David Kelly
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should soon be signed into law. While much of the motivation for U.S. tax reform has come from a desire to cut corporate taxes, most of the net benefits will accrue to individual taxpayers.
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The investment outlook for 2018: It ain’t over till the central banks sing

By Karen Ward
The macro environment in 2017 provided fertile ground for most asset markets.
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Fed reactions following the December FOMC meeting

By Dr. David Kelly
In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of 1.25% - 1.50%. The committee cited continued strength in the labor market and rising economic growth as the deciding factors in today’s announcement.
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Brexit: EU & UK reach divorce terms

By Karen Ward
Overnight the UK and EU authorities completed phase one of the Brexit negotiations.
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Review of markets over November 2017

By Maria Paola Toschi
A summary of the factors driving global markets over last month.
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Evolving expectations for infrastructure investing

Infrastructure remains an attractive asset class for institutional investors given its low correlations to other asset classes, relatively high yields, and the positive outlook for investor demand.
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Emerging Market Debt: Reflation takes root

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
Given the risks posed by protectionism, we are more cautious on open economies and those more dependent on external funding. Overall, we have shifted our focus from market beta to carry this quarter, coming off of solid first quarter performance, tighter valuations and the little market premium attached to the risks we have identified. We place an emphasis on short-end names and those idiosyncratic stories that we identify as having positive event skew.
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Inflation's next phase

By Benjamin Mandel, Michael Hood
For investors, the recovery of inflation and inflation risk premia, against the backdrop of anchored inflation expectations, imply a supportive environment for risk assets. Our outlook suggests continued upward pressure on the market pricing of inflation, manifesting in higher bond yields and a widening spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds.
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UK GDP: Continued strong growth numbers 

By Alex Dryden
With the economy growing at 2% and inflation hitting a 30-month high in December, the Bank of England is in a tough spot. In normal times, strong economic growth and higher inflation would lead to tighter monetary policy.
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Entering the reflation era

By Pierre-Yves Bareau
We are entering a new investment paradigm: the era of "lower for longer" and "search for yield" has now been replaced by an era shaped by higher growth, inflation and rates.
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