Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book
UK wages grew at the fastest pace since 2008 in July, with the three-month average growth rate for wages including bonuses reaching 4% year on year.
The ECB’s forceful stimulus package surprised investors with an open-ended approach to a relaunched QE—asset purchases of €20 billion per month will continue until inflation starts to rise.
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.
Investment grade and high yield credit in emerging markets have delivered divergent performance over the summer. Could this trend reverse, or is investor caution warranted in the high yield space?
The investment landscape is changing as savers and governments place greater scrutiny on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. In this piece we highlight the driving forces and discuss the ways in which investors can include ESG factors
A slew of fundamental developments over the week suggests the macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate, and yet bond markets are still generating strong returns across not only safe havens but also risk assets. Can this momentum persist into Sept.
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.