Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
After a volatile December driven by concerns of rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth, and geopolitical tensions, markets have bounced back.
Market sentiment towards the Chinese currency has shifted significantly
A strategic framework for building a private credit portfolio
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.
Attention is increasingly turning to the question of how and when the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to reduce the size of its balance sheet, now that it has begun raising interest rates.
The UK economic and equity landscape post-Brexit
Pension Pulse Summer 2018