While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
With global recessionary risks rising, we provide a framework to help UK pensions prepare for near-term risks that could challenge the fulfillment of their sponsor covenants.
We further discuss how institutional investors can protect their portfolios from late cycle headwinds and rising volatility so that they can be positioned for long-term success.
Last night a series of votes took place in the UK House of Commons. The purpose of the votes was to establish a potential way forward for the Brexit negotiations that could command the support of a majority of members of Parliament (MPs).
At the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) press conference, Governor Carney noted that businesses are taking a very cautious approach right now because of the uncertainty around the outcome of the ongoing Brexit negotiations.
There has been significant progress in the Brexit negotiations in the last 48 hours.
Trade policy is of first-order importance in a more connected world, and markets have been reacting nervously to U.S. trade disputes.
We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
The key political, macro and credit risks that insurers may want to address in 2019.
The Italian election did not result in a majority for either a single party or coalition.