This paper addresses that the composition of the Fed will be different in 2018 and will likely be moving in a more hawkish direction.
Emerging Market Equity Views : Favorable global cycle and USD outlooks create a positive environment
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
A systematic back-test of MSCI ESG ratings
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the Federal Open Market Committee meeting announcement on September 17.
Guide to the Markets
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the impact that deflationary fears have had on the Fed's decision to postpone rate hikes.
A weekly review of global markets and multi-asset portfolios
The outperformance of US stocks relative to European counterparts has been one of the defining characteristics of equity markets in the post-crisis period. This piece highlights how two sectors—technology and financials—have played a key role in driving
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.